Market Share Forecast Homework -1 Homework Market Share: Submit Excel Sheet
Forecast Laredo International Airport airline enplanements using the data in the in class example. Using a 10-year average market share, develop projections for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Show your answers in a table.
| Year | Total Airline Enplanements | Southwest Region Enplanements | Market Share (%) | |
| 1990 | 59,279 | 60,925,903 | 0.0973% | |
| 1991 | 65,651 | 60,467,718 | 0.1086% | |
| 1992 | 80,593 | 63,396,932 | 0.1271% | |
| 1993 | 92,110 | 64,296,680 | 0.1433% | |
| 1994 | 97,998 | 67,434,877 | 0.1453% | |
| 1995 | 64,198 | 70,689,841 | 0.0908% | |
| 1996 | 57,996 | 72,061,761 | 0.0805% | |
| 1997 | 61,728 | 74,341,596 | 0.0830% | |
| 1998 | 79,714 | 75,957,918 | 0.1049% | |
| 1999 | 88,969 | 77,056,344 | 0.1155% | |
| 2000 | 90,647 | 79,833,666 | 0.1135% | |
| 2001 | 82,400 | 80,184,741 | 0.1028% | |
| Ten Year Average | ??? | |||
| 2005 | ??? | 93,167,307 | ??? |
| 2010 | ??? | 110,022,766 | ??? |
| 2015 | ??? | 126,843,590 | ??? |
| 2020 | ??? | 143,846,242 | ??? |
| 2025 | ??? | 160,775,532 | ??? |
How does this forecast differ from that using the 5-year average?
Which forecast would you select and why?
Forecast Homework – Regression Analysis
Using data in the below in class example, forecast GA operations using effective buying income (X2) as the independent variable. Develop forecasts for the years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2030. Show your answers in a table.
Questions:
How does this forecast differ from that using employment as the independent variable?
What is the coefficient of determination for this scenario and what does it imply?
| Service Area | |||
| Year | GA Operations (Y) | Employment (X1) | Effective Buying Income (X2) |
| 2000 | 22,513 | 45,714 | $8,433 |
| 2001 | 23,768 | 48,601 | $9,207 |
| 2002 | 21,838 | 51,314 | $10,106 |
| 2003 | 25,904 | 54,107 | $10,457 |
| 2004 | 26,208 | 57,848 | $11,055 |
| 2005 | 26,946 | 56,022 | $11,016 |
| 2006 | 27,977 | 56,317 | $11,399 |
| 2007 | 27,294 | 58,757 | $11,883 |
| 2008 | 28,647 | 61,556 | $12,119 |
| 2009 | 29,270 | 62,341 | $12,213 |
| Forecast | |||
| 2010 | 66,533 | $13,081 | |
| 2015 | 73,491 | $14,609 | |
| 2020 | 82,189 | $16,525 | |
| 2030 | 99,584 | $20,369 | |
